CHEN Xilu

CHEN Xilu

Assistant Professor in School of Economics at Jinan University

Publications

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

English Journal Articles

Does Digitalization of Government Activities Improve Business Environment? The Influence of Public Service Standardization

Published in Economic Analysis and Policy, 2025

Abstract: This study examines how digitalization of government activities improves the business environment. Unlike previous studies that have emphasized transparency, our research examines the role of government’s information and communication technology adoption in establishing standardized procedures for public service provision. Initially, offline services imposed higher costs due to individual discretion. However, the emergence of online platforms introduced clear standards, which prompted offline channels to align with these norms. Consequently, firms are able to access public services at reduced costs, whether online or offline, compared with the pre-digitalization period. We test the predictions of our general equilibrium model using cross-country data from 2003 to 2019. Results from instrumental variable estimations demonstrate that the enhanced scope and quality of online government services have causally improved the business environment, predominantly by reducing firms’ compliance costs, confirming our theoretical model’s predictions. These findings highlight the importance of standardized service delivery for optimizing public service effectiveness.

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Tertiarization like China

Published in Annual Review of Economics, 2023

Abstract: This article documents a rapid shift toward services (tertiarization) of the Chinese economy since 2005, as evidenced by the significant increase in both employment and value-added shares of the service sector. Notably, our analysis reveals that a variety of measures of productivity growth have been greater in the service sector than in the manufacturing sector. Firm-level measures of dynamism corroborate this ongoing tertiarization trend, which is not limited to services used as inputs to industrial production but extends also to consumer services. These findings are robust across different growth accounting methodologies, including a recently proposed method by Fan et al. (2023) that addresses challenges associated with the measurement of quality improvements in service industries.

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A Forensic Examination of China’s National Accounts

Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019

Abstract: China’s national accounts are based on data collected by local governments. However, because local governments are rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, they have an incentive to skew local statistics. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adjusts the data provided by local governments to calculate GDP at the national level. The adjustments made by the NBS have averaged about 5 percent of GDP since the mid-2000s. On the production side, the discrepancy between local and aggregate GDP is entirely driven by the gap between local and national estimates of industrial output. On the expenditure side, the gap is in investment. Local statistics increasingly misrepresent the true numbers after 2008, but there was no corresponding change in the adjustment made by the NBS. Using publicly available data, we provide revised estimates of local and national GDP by reestimating the output of firms in the industrial, construction, and wholesale and retail trade sectors, using data on value-added taxes. We also use several local economic indicators that are less likely to be manipulated by local governments to estimate local and aggregate GDP. These estimates also suggest that the adjustments by the NBS have been insufficient since 2008. Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2010 to 2016 was about 1.8 percentage points lower and that the investment and savings rate in 2016 was about 7 percentage points lower.

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Chinese Journal Articles

营商环境的决定因素———基于政务服务能力的视角

Published in 《经济学（季刊）》, 2025

摘要：本文考察政府优化辖区营商环境的内在决定因素。在理论上，本文证明，营商环境是政务服务市场和要素市场一般均衡的结果；政务服务能力将通过成本效应、服务效应和挤出效应等三个效应影响辖区营商环境。在实证上，本文把“高效办成一件事”改革视为政府提升政务服务能力的一个准自然实验，采用2018年至2023年中国营商环境企业调查样本，验证了理论模型的成本效应。本文的发现揭示出不断提高政务服务能力才能持续优化营商环境。

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数字政府影响收入差距的U型模式：来自全球的证据

Published in 《经济理论与经济管理》, 2024

摘要：本文系统讨论了数字政府建设对收入差距的影响。理论上，数字政府建设会因企业获取政务服务能力的差异而对收入差距产生异质性影响。实证上，本文基于2007年至2019年全球158个经济体的数据，使用历史出生率构建工具变量，揭示了数字政府建设对收入差距影响的U型模式：若数字政府建设水平已较高，则进一步的建设会扩大收入差距；若建设水平较低，则结论相反。在数字政府建设过程中，中国应着重提升数字技术覆盖面和服务精准度，深化数字技术在再分配过程中的应用。

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数字政府促进经济发展：理论机制与跨国证据

Published in 《数量经济技术经济研究》, 2023

摘要：数字政府建设作为推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要举措，能够促进经济高质量发展吗?围绕这一重要问题，本文从理论和实证两方面考察数字政府促进经济发展的机制与证据。在理论上，本文构建了一个由政务服务市场与产品市场构成的一般均衡模型，政策制定者在预期数字政府使用率高于临界值时选择建设数字政府;当企业能够自由选择通过线下平台或数字政府获取政务服务时，会加强政府内部竞争，从而促进经济发展。其背后的具体机制为数字政府建设可以降低企业获取政务服务的合规成本，并可能影响政府提供政务服务的财政支出。在实证上，基于2002~2019年全球167个经济体的数据，本文研究发现数字政府建设能够显著提高劳均产出，促进经济高质量发展;数字政府建设能够通过减少企业获取政务服务的时间和所经历的程序数目来促进经济发展。本文研究结论表明，只有切实提高数字政府的使用率，才能充分发挥数字政府建设促进经济高质量发展的积极作用，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。

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商事制度改革与产业结构变迁：微观视角

Published in 《经济研究》, 2022

摘要：近年来,新企业进入逐渐成为了第三产业占比加速提升的主导力量。理论上，本文将商事制度改革引入Melitz模型，证明了市场准入办事门槛降低将促使更多新企业进入资本密集度较低的第三产业。实证上，本文验证了这一点。企业办证个数每减少1个，进入第三产业的企业占比增加约0.5个百分点；注册耗时和办证耗时的缩短也有类似的效果。进一步，本文发现商事制度改革的结构效应具有四个特征：一是主要影响消费性服务业；二是该影响主要存在于企业生命周期的最初1-3年；三是第三产业的新增企业规模相对变小；四是该效应随办事门槛降低而递减。本文的发现是稳健的，揭示了产业结构变迁具有企业进入的微观基础，而企业的持续成长，还需要深化商事制度改革。

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行政审批改革与企业进入

Published in 《经济研究》, 2018

摘要：本文考察行政审批改革对企业进入率的影响程度。在识别方法上，本文证明了，基于规模临界值的企业进入率更具有实用性。比如，可以直接采用工业企业数据库计算企业进入率。在实证上，本文手工收集整理全国333个地级和2852个县级设立行政审批中心的数据，实证分析发现，在1998-2007年间，设立行政审批中心的地级市，企业进入率显著提高约2-25个百分点。本文还发现，行政审批中心主要是通过进驻部门实现跨部门协调，便于企业进入市场。这个发现相当稳健，排除各地创业氛围、对外开放“倒逼”国内市场开放、政府招商引资动机、以及地方官员变更冲击等因素后，依然成立。将样本拓展到2013年后，本文的基本发现依然存在。

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